War between America and Iran would destroy whole Middle East ?
Here are some estimates about possible effects of US-Iran war on Middle East.
Today situations are near than war at Persian Gulf after American president announced to leave from nuclear deal with Iran.
After that, America deployed its one aircraft carrier aimed counter of Iranian nuclear program. Actually Persian Gulf is just 40mile wide sea and way of 30% oil trade. Here, American carrier is also present, mean just 90Km away from Iranian Coast.
If war start, this American carrier will be the first target of Iranian missiles and ships. Not only that, Iranian presence in Iraq and Syria will cost Israel.
As a response , USA will raid on Iran, may be Saudi blog will help them.
Worse, through its proxy, Iran would make sure US troops and its allies are targeted in many places. US troops in Syria and Iraq would be at risk. Particularly in Iraq where elements of the Iraqi army (ex-PMU in Iraqi uniforms) could provoke an escalation between Iraqi and US forces on Iraqi soil. Hezbollah would certainly taunt Israel and try to drag it into a conflict in Lebanon. Israel would find itself under fire from elements in both Lebanon and Syria. The Saudis would most certainly be the target of increased Houthis missile launches and raids. Incursions from other Shia militias into the Saudi kingdom cannot be neglected. Iran would most certainly be able to depict this struggle as a Sunni-Shia conflict, as well as a Muslim struggle against Israel and its Western allies, which would turn the Middle East into a magnet for Jihadis from all over the world. Should Saudi Arabia and Israel fight for the same side (against Iran and alongside the US), this should split opinions in the Muslim world and potentially lose the Saudis some support. American forces in Afghanistan could also be targeted through Shia militias there, transiting through the Iranian and Pakistani borders. Iran would basically do what Saddam Hussein tried to do in 1991: Try and involve other Middle Eastern actors into the conflict and expand said conflicts. Saddam Hussein did not have any friends or support in the region… Iran, on the other hand, is in a much better position for such a move.
To wrap this up, maritime transport through the Persian Gulf would also be targeted by Iranian proxies. US and Saudi Navy ships, but also oil tankers would be at risk… Iran itself might be tempted to block the Strait of Hormuz with wrecks or target shipping lanes with AshMs. The Straight is called the world’s most important oil chokepoint. A dozen oil tanker transit through Hormuz every day, representing over 30% of shipborne oil and 20% of oil traded daily. A drop in oil supply due to disruption of traffic in the Straight of Hormuz would push oil prices up, throwing a massive spanner in the global economy.
Then, there is the question: Can the USA go at it alone ?
The US Army, Air Force and Navy are stretched as things are, right now. Yet, US troops in the Middle East and Afghanistan would need to be reinforced further and subsequently sustained. This is bound to stretch the US armed forces further, still.
And it is not sure the US will be able to count on its allies, this time around. On Tuesday, Major Gen. Chris Ghika who is the deputy commander of the US-led military coalition against ISIS, contradicted US claims that Iran was posing a heightened level of threat. He is British. His comment was rebuked by the Pentagon but supported by his hierarchy in London. On the same day, Spain pulled back its Méndez Núñez Frigate from Lincoln strike carrier group. The Lincoln aircraft carrier had been ordered by Washington to head for the Gulf. The next day, both France and Germany announced they were temporarily suspending operations in Iraq (training of Iraqi forces) to focus on the safety of their soldiers in the region. Every single European capital has called on the US and Iran to show restrain. Those countries followed the US into Afghanistan in 2001 and into Iraq in 2003. Many have been operating there ever since. The same countries followed the US back into Iraq and Syria again, in 2014, this time fighting against ISIS. But none of them show an appetite to follow the US into a military adventure in Iran. The public opinion in those countries is battle wary. Furthermore, there is a deep skepticism among U.S. allies as to what the American motives are for a war against Iran. So far, the American narrative has been labelled as “fake news” by many. Nobody has forgotten Saddam Hussein’s non-existent WMDs. This time, the US is not seen as the victim, as it was after 9/11. This time, the US is seen by many as the aggressor.
In 2015, Iran, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (including the US) and EU representatives signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreement (known as the Iran Nuclear Deal). EU countries subsequently resumed investments and trade in and with Iran. Washington angered those EU countries when in 2018, the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the agreement despite the fact Iran abided to its terms. Worse, The US were ready to raise sanctions against any EU country that was willing to keep on trading with Tehran. This was in addition of Washington meddling in the economic affairs of the European countries involved in the Nord Stream Gas Pipeline project. There again, EU businesses have been threatened with sanction by Washington…
For Operation Desert Storm in 1991, The US deployed 700,000 men and enjoyed the support of over 256,000 troops deployed by its allies. In 2003, the Americans deployed 467,000 troops for the invasion of Iraq. Those troops were supported by 47,000 British and Australian troops as well as an estimated 70,000 Kurdish militiamen from Northern Iraq. Taking those figures into account, keep in mind that Iran is almost 4 times larger than Iraq and that its population is twice as large. And yet, it is difficult right now to guess which Western country would be willing to send troops into Iran alongside the US Army. The Saudis alongside other Sunni monarchies would willingly take part in such a conflict, but let’s be honest: their fighting prowesses in Yemen are not really the stuff legends are made off… And the involvement of Sunni monarchies in an invasion of Iran would only spur more Shia Muslims around the world into taking up arms in favour of Tehran…
The Middle East never looks stable, but this would make things worse. Much worse.
#Gm
Note:
Follow and subscribe of this blog for further more news.
War between
Here are some estimates about possible effects of US-Iran war on Middle East.
Today situations are near than war at Persian Gulf after American president announced to leave from nuclear deal with Iran.
After that, America deployed its one aircraft carrier aimed counter of Iranian nuclear program. Actually Persian Gulf is just 40mile wide sea and way of 30% oil trade. Here, American carrier is also present, mean just 90Km away from Iranian Coast.
If war start, this American carrier will be the first target of Iranian missiles and ships. Not only that, Iranian presence in Iraq and Syria will cost Israel.
As a response , USA will raid on Iran, may be Saudi blog will help them.
Worse, through its proxy, Iran would make sure US troops and its allies are targeted in many places. US troops in Syria and Iraq would be at risk. Particularly in Iraq where elements of the Iraqi army (ex-PMU in Iraqi uniforms) could provoke an escalation between Iraqi and US forces on Iraqi soil. Hezbollah would certainly taunt Israel and try to drag it into a conflict in Lebanon. Israel would find itself under fire from elements in both Lebanon and Syria. The Saudis would most certainly be the target of increased Houthis missile launches and raids. Incursions from other Shia militias into the Saudi kingdom cannot be neglected. Iran would most certainly be able to depict this struggle as a Sunni-Shia conflict, as well as a Muslim struggle against Israel and its Western allies, which would turn the Middle East into a magnet for Jihadis from all over the world. Should Saudi Arabia and Israel fight for the same side (against Iran and alongside the US), this should split opinions in the Muslim world and potentially lose the Saudis some support. American forces in Afghanistan could also be targeted through Shia militias there, transiting through the Iranian and Pakistani borders. Iran would basically do what Saddam Hussein tried to do in 1991: Try and involve other Middle Eastern actors into the conflict and expand said conflicts. Saddam Hussein did not have any friends or support in the region… Iran, on the other hand, is in a much better position for such a move.
To wrap this up, maritime transport through the Persian Gulf would also be targeted by Iranian proxies. US and Saudi Navy ships, but also oil tankers would be at risk… Iran itself might be tempted to block the Strait of Hormuz with wrecks or target shipping lanes with AshMs. The Straight is called the world’s most important oil chokepoint. A dozen oil tanker transit through Hormuz every day, representing over 30% of shipborne oil and 20% of oil traded daily. A drop in oil supply due to disruption of traffic in the Straight of Hormuz would push oil prices up, throwing a massive spanner in the global economy.
Then, there is the question: Can the USA go at it alone ?
The US Army, Air Force and Navy are stretched as things are, right now. Yet, US troops in the Middle East and Afghanistan would need to be reinforced further and subsequently sustained. This is bound to stretch the US armed forces further, still.
And it is not sure the US will be able to count on its allies, this time around. On Tuesday, Major Gen. Chris Ghika who is the deputy commander of the US-led military coalition against ISIS, contradicted US claims that Iran was posing a heightened level of threat. He is British. His comment was rebuked by the Pentagon but supported by his hierarchy in London. On the same day, Spain pulled back its Méndez Núñez Frigate from Lincoln strike carrier group. The Lincoln aircraft carrier had been ordered by Washington to head for the Gulf. The next day, both France and Germany announced they were temporarily suspending operations in Iraq (training of Iraqi forces) to focus on the safety of their soldiers in the region. Every single European capital has called on the US and Iran to show restrain. Those countries followed the US into Afghanistan in 2001 and into Iraq in 2003. Many have been operating there ever since. The same countries followed the US back into Iraq and Syria again, in 2014, this time fighting against ISIS. But none of them show an appetite to follow the US into a military adventure in Iran. The public opinion in those countries is battle wary. Furthermore, there is a deep skepticism among U.S. allies as to what the American motives are for a war against Iran. So far, the American narrative has been labelled as “fake news” by many. Nobody has forgotten Saddam Hussein’s non-existent WMDs. This time, the US is not seen as the victim, as it was after 9/11. This time, the US is seen by many as the aggressor.
In 2015, Iran, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (including the US) and EU representatives signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreement (known as the Iran Nuclear Deal). EU countries subsequently resumed investments and trade in and with Iran. Washington angered those EU countries when in 2018, the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the agreement despite the fact Iran abided to its terms. Worse, The US were ready to raise sanctions against any EU country that was willing to keep on trading with Tehran. This was in addition of Washington meddling in the economic affairs of the European countries involved in the Nord Stream Gas Pipeline project. There again, EU businesses have been threatened with sanction by Washington…
For Operation Desert Storm in 1991, The US deployed 700,000 men and enjoyed the support of over 256,000 troops deployed by its allies. In 2003, the Americans deployed 467,000 troops for the invasion of Iraq. Those troops were supported by 47,000 British and Australian troops as well as an estimated 70,000 Kurdish militiamen from Northern Iraq. Taking those figures into account, keep in mind that Iran is almost 4 times larger than Iraq and that its population is twice as large. And yet, it is difficult right now to guess which Western country would be willing to send troops into Iran alongside the US Army. The Saudis alongside other Sunni monarchies would willingly take part in such a conflict, but let’s be honest: their fighting prowesses in Yemen are not really the stuff legends are made off… And the involvement of Sunni monarchies in an invasion of Iran would only spur more Shia Muslims around the world into taking up arms in favour of Tehran…
The Middle East never looks stable, but this would make things worse. Much worse.
#Gm
Note:
Follow and subscribe of this blog for further more news.
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